Europeans, who remained on the sidelines of the negotiations, could potentially face an unlikely new alliance of the United States, Russia and Belarus
Another 123 prisoners were released by the Belarusian regime today following talks between John Coale, Donald Trump’s envoy, and Belarusian leader Aliaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk. Over 300 have been released this year according to Coale.
Those released—114 of whom went to Ukraine with the other nine heading to Vilnius, Lithuania—include high-level political oppositionists Viktar Babaryka and Maryia Kalesnikava, as well as Nobel Prize winner Ales Bialatski and ex-chair of the Young Front, Paval Seviarinets.
In return for the release of the prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on the export of potash from Belarus, arguably its most profitable commodity. The earlier release of prisoners in June and September when 13 and 52 prisoners respectively were released and deported to Lithuania, including Siarhei Tsikhanouski, the husband of opposition leader and 2020 presidential candidate Sviatlana.
Throughout 2025, Trump’s officials have visited Minsk regularly to negotiate with Lukashenka, in contrast to EU leaders who refuse to deal with the unrecognized leader. In 2020, Lukashenka fabricated the results of the election, leading to mass protests that were brutally repressed with tens of thousands of arrests. Many of those detained were subject to torture and kangaroo courts imposed lengthy prison sentences on those incarcerated as well as many in exile.
Today, most opposition leaders are living outside Belarus, as the regime continues to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, and Lukashenka has formed a close partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The sheer joy of those released and meeting with friends and colleagues already in exile was heartwarming, particularly the reunion of Babaryka and his former electoral chief of staff, Kalesnikava.
Coale has hinted that further releases are anticipated, perhaps as many as 1,000, which would constitute a remarkable breakthrough and solidify the new relationship between Trump’s government and the Lukashenka regime.
The question is always about the cost. A regime that has brutalized its own people for years and used political prisoners as pawns to circumvent sanctions is now returning to the world stage after five years of isolation. And it is Donald Trump, the unpopular and authoritarian US leader, who sees a fellow soulmate in Lukashenka, whom he refers to as the “esteemed president of Belarus,” that has achieved the breakthrough along with his Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
One’s first inclination is to say nothing else really matters other than the prisoners’ release. Whatever one may think about Trump—and this writer is certainly not in the ranks of his fan club—the release is to his credit.
On the other hand, as Natallia Radzina pointed out on Facebook, it is Western sanctions that brought about the releases. Without them, Lukashenka would have had no restraints from which to break free.
One should also give credit to several Belarusian agencies that have long campaigned for the freedom of the prisoners, not least the Office of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, members of which have tirelessly lobbied on their behalf with European and North American governments.
Both Trump and Lukashenka will derive great satisfaction from the resulting alienation of EU members who were excluded from the negotiations and are now left with a reenergized dictator to their east with Russian tactical nuclear weapons on his territory, as well as the potential for further incursions by Russian troops into Ukraine from Belarusian territory sometime in the future.
We thus see a realignment of forces. Through official Belarus, the United States (meaning now the Trump team) can more easily negotiate with Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. In this regard, Lukashenka can resume a self-perceived role as a mediator for peace rather than a vassal of Moscow.
Players on the sidelines can only observe. The United Kingdom has always supported both Ukraine and the Belarusian opposition, but it rejected the EU nine years ago and has been too immersed in its own problems to pay much heed to Belarus. The negotiations are, in any case, outside the usual official channels and conducted by elderly officials—Keith Kellogg (81), Steve Witkoff (68), Coale (79)— with no diplomatic experience and all selected because of their links to Trump.
The release of the prisoners, especially if it is furthered by the mass liberation of all the political prisoners, poses some important political questions through its consequences. Lukashenka may be released from US sanctions, rendering those from the EU more manageable (the potash would surely need to be exported through Lithuania as Belarus is a landlocked state) but still in place.
Trump continues to ride roughshod over his country’s past alliances with the EU and its leadership of NATO. The Europeans potentially could find themselves confronting an unlikely new alliance of the United States, Russia, and Belarus.
And given a cessation of the invasion of Ukraine and Putin-Trump inspired peace agreement, the Europeans would face a new Russian border extending into Ukrainian territory with further potential changes in the offing. These changes would only further Putin’s ambition to undermine and destroy the EU.
These questions are all byproducts of a new world order that undoubtedly threatens democracy.
In the short term, perhaps we should simply celebrate the release of many committed and brilliant Belarusian activists who suddenly have a future outside the walls of old Stalinist prison cells. Whether there is any chance that this future will include a return to their homeland remains a moot point; that would surely be their wish.
In February 2025, Oxford University Press will publish Professor Marples’ new book on Belarus, co-authored with Veronica Laputska(https://global.oup.com/academic/product/belarus-9780197772966?cc=us&lang=en).