The war against Kiev is extremely expensive for Moscow and its military leadership is inept and weak compared to its counterpart in 1941-45
The Great Patriotic War (GPW) lasted three years, ten months, and seventeen days, from 22 June 1941 to 9 May 1945, or 1,412 days. It was a war like no other, and it is remembered in Russia today as though it happened yesterday. Countless media articles and ceremonies continue to appear on Russian social media. And invariably, many of these articles compare the GPW to the current Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine.
But the SMO has not achieved the spectacular successes of Stalingrad or the Kursk Salient. The only valid analogy is the unnecessary waste of troops, deployed in headlong attacks against the enemy. But Marshal Georgy Zhukov ended the war in Berlin, whereas [Chief of the General Staff’] Valery Gerasimov could not even capture Sloviansk, the original military headquarters of the quasi-state, the Donetsk People’s Republic, in 2014.
Instead of the Nazis, there are the Ukrainians, operating from their base, the “neo-Nazi” leadership in Kyiv and the NATO-driven battalions using symbols reminiscent of those of Hitler’s regime. Taken alone, one would think, the Ukrainian army would not be considered a worthy opponent by the Russian public. Therefore, official narrative reports that Russia is fighting the West, via NATO, with Ukraine involved in a proxy war.
Many Western analysts support that statement, ignoring the fact that were NATO to cross the Polish border, its forces would quickly overwhelm the Russian army in a conventional war.
Over the past month, Russian troops have taken part in a grinding and costly advance in the Donbas and other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. In turn, Ukrainian troops have also counterattacked in several areas for the first time since the ill-conceived and ill-fated advance into Kursk region in August 2024.
The Russians currently occupy about one-fifth of Ukraine, but their advances over the past year have been meagre. In the whole of 2025, the Russian army captured a further 0.7% of Ukrainian territory. That follows the capture of roughly 0.6% in 2024, consisting mostly of fields and small villages.
If one calculates human losses on the Russian side, which are not reported by the Russian government—thus they are estimates—about 418,000 casualties were sustained last year, slightly less than the preceding year (figures from the Institute for the Study of War). The inference is clear. The Russians are expending human lives on a venture that is achieving very little.
Were the current advances and casualty levels to be maintained, Russia would need about 140 years to occupy all of Ukraine, with losses somewhere in the region of 59 million troops.
While such statistics defy the imagination, it is evident that the war is extremely costly for Russia, and its military leadership is inept and feeble compared to its counterparts in 1941-45.
Moreover, like the Soviet army, Ukraine is defending its own territory and can fall back on its own resources, with material help from the European Union, the UK, Canada, and, until recently, the United States. The Russians, in this respect, are emulating the role of the Nazis, not the Ukrainians.
In addition, the Soviet army was not exclusively Russian. Ukrainians provided some 2.5 million troops to that army, and the republic and its northern neighbour, Belarus, suffered the longest and worst periods of Nazi occupation. Kyiv and Minsk were occupied, but Moscow was not. Even Leningrad, which suffered a horrific 880-day siege, never succumbed to the Germans.
That Ukraine is also in a dire and increasingly untenable situation is not in doubt. The point here is why such a situation should exist. Why would the Russian leader, who is effectively a dictator who can control the ground forces, not call a halt to such an unsuccessful and expensive enterprise?
The answer is likely twofold. First, he is so intent on destroying the Ukrainian state that he is no longer making rational decisions. And second, that having invested so heavily in propagating warfare, it is no longer economically expedient to stop it. It would require shutting down factories and laying off workers involved in manufacturing missiles, drones, and other weapons. The war will continue as long asPutin is the leader of Russia.
Also, signing a peace agreement—any peace agreement—without accomplishing his mission is tantamount to an admission of failure. Russia has occupied two regions of dubious loyalty to the Ukrainian state, Crimea and Luhansk, and much of a third—Donetsk—but failed elsewhere.
In particular, the humiliating failure to occupy Kyiv in three days in February 2022 likely occupies much of Putin’s thoughts. The SMO was intended to be brief, an operation, not a full-scale war, one that has lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War.
Putin will also continue the fighting because there is no power that is able or wants to prevent him. If the United States or China either demanded that he stop or opted to support Ukraine’s survival, then he would have no recourse but to come to the negotiating table.
If China (and India) refused to buy Russian oil, along with other purchasers, the outcome would be the same. The war would be over in a matter of weeks. But these states remain neutral or Russia-friendly states.
As Russia weakens, China grabs more economic clout and influence. China’s economy is eight times larger than Russia’s when measured by nominal GDP, with ten times the population. It can quietly benefit from Russia’s preoccupation with war, as well as from expanded trade with states upset with Donald Trump’s posturing and tariffs.
The pervading and insidious propaganda campaign in Russian media and social media insinuating that NATO and the West provoked this war does not stand up to even the most fleeting analysis. But it may have convinced the Russian people that the cause is justified, assuming they are even aware of the catastrophic losses of the military.
There is little to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine other than the idiosyncrasies and obsessions of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.